近50年来全球海温异常对我国东部地区冬季温度异常影响的诊断研究

DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBALSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ONTHE WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIESIN EASTERN CHINA IN PAST 50 YEARS

利用1951～1997年全球海温、风场月平均资料和我国东部地区100个测站的冬季地面气温等资料,分析了我国东部地区冬季温度异常的时空特征和变化规律,探讨了全球海温异常与我国东部地区冬季温度异常的关系。发现赤道印度洋、赤道东太平洋、黑潮区是影响我国东部地区冬季温度异常的关键海区。前期夏、秋季赤道印度洋、赤道东太平洋海温异常与我国东部地区冬季温度异常有较好的相关关系,对预测我国东部地区冬季温度异常有一定的前兆意义。且不同关键海区的海温异常在不同季节对我国东部地区冬季温度异常产生影响的区域不同。

By using the data set of the mean monthly global sea surface temperature during the period of 1951~ 1997, mean monthly global wind fields, the surface air temperature of 100 stations in eastern China during the same period, the spatial and temporal features and its variations for winter temperature anomalies in eastern China are analyzed. The possible relations between the sea surface temperature anomalies and the winter temperature anomalies in eastern China are also studied. The result shows that the equatorial Indian Ocean, the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean, and the Kuroshio current area, are the key areas that affect the winter temperature in eastern China. The sea surface temperature anomalies in equatorial Indian Ocean and equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean during the prophase Summer and Autumn have better relations with the winter temperature anomaly in eastern China. It is also a precursory factor to predict the winter temperature anomaly in eastern China. And the sea surface temperature anomaly in different key oceans affects different areas' winter temperature anomaly in eastern China during different seasons.