货币替代的汇率效应与汇率制度及政策的选择

The Exchange Rate Effect and System of Currency Substitution and Their Policy Selection

货币替代是开放经济条件下普遍存在的现象。如果以货币需求的资产选择理论为基础,从静态和动态的角度分析货币替代对汇率的影响,那么,在弹性价格条件下形成汇率的“扩张效应”,在粘性价格条件下形成汇率的“迟钝效应”。因此,要从降低本国通货膨胀率、适度开放、缩小国内外利差等方面展开“反货币替代”行动;而且,建立和完善汇率目标区制度对于发展中国家“反货币替代”、防止金融风险尤为重要。

The currency substitution, which is a universal phenomenon in condition of opening to the world, affects exchange rate in both static and dynamic sides. If a general price level is flexible, the currency substitution will make a magnification effect on exchange rate; while the price level is stick, it will make a tardy effect on exchange rate. The developing countries including China must make anti-substitution policies such as reducing internal inflation rate, opening to thd world properly, narrowing the gap between internal and external interest rates. Therefore, it is very important and necessary for those countries to build an exchange rate target zone system in order to avoid currency substitution and financial risks.