论有限理性预期与汇率决定理论

On the Near-Rational Expectation and the Theory of Exchange Rate Deternunation

在浮动汇率制度下,无论名义汇率还是实际汇率都处于频繁波动之中,而以理性预期为假设前提的传统汇率理论难以分析和预测大多数汇率的短期波动,人们对外汇市场的有效性产生了怀疑。实践中,汇率持续波动更多地是由随机出现的新信息或其他原因来解释,外汇市场经济主体的预期并非是理性的,而是具有有限理性的特征,因而市场主体也就分为技术分析者和宏观基本因素分析者两类,其相对重要性由当时的市场条件决定。德高维等人就是通过基本因素与技术分析相结合,建立了有限理性预期的汇率决定模型,其应用与汇率实践的发展相一致。

In a flexible exchange rate system much of the movement in exchange rates can not be accounted for, and theories of exchange rate determination which are based on rational expectations still seek to explain those movement features. De Grauwe proposes an alternative way of modeling exchange rates. Instead of stressing forward-looking behavior,he emphasizes that in an uncertain circumstance economic a-gents may prefer to use backward-looking' rules for most of the time. Such behavior can be derived from an assumption of near-rationality.