城市地震伤亡人数的概率预测模型

A probalilty forecast model of an earthquake striken city

提出了利用可靠度方法预测城市地震人员伤亡数目的概率模型 ,利用此模型可计算出所需概率意义下的伤亡人数的范围 ,为地震区编制抗震防灾规划和地震救援方案提供有效的依据。同时给出了

This paper provides casualties probability forecast model of city under earthquake using reliability method.The range of casualties on given probability can be calculated through the model.These data could provide effective ground for earthquake areas to work out anti seismic fortify program and relieving plan.At the same time,a forecast example has been given on a certain city under an earthquake.