谱分析方法在市域经济周期研究中的应用——以温州市为例

THE APPLICATION OF FREQUENCY SCALE METHOD IN THE RESEARCH OF MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC CYCLES --USING WENZHOU CITY AS AN EXAMPLE

经济周期的理论必然涉及经济周期长度的研究 ,相对于常用的自回归移动平均方法 ,谱分析方法具备一定的优点。本文以温州市 1978- 1998年国内生产总值指数作为市域经济发展水平的量度 ,利用谱分析方法确定了四个不同的周期 ,并对其成因进行了初步探讨。

The theory of economic cycle involves the research on the length of economic cycle. Compared with the ARMA method frequency scale method has several advantages. Using GDP index of Wenzhou City from 1978 to 1998 as measurement of municipal economic development we found 4 different cycles and discussed their forming causes.