北半球增暖对我国气侯的影响

THE EFFECT OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WARMING ON THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA

本文在分析100多年来北半球平均气温长期变化基本特征的基础上,讨论了北半球气温变化对我国气候变化的影响。结果表明,我国大范围气温距平与北半球平均气温有显著的正相关,长江中下游和华北平原的温度距平值平均为北半球平均气温距平的1.4-1.6倍。还表明,我国降水距平分布与北半球气温变化也有一定的联系。在北半球平均气温偏高和偏低年份,欧亚地区500hPa环流特征的差异是显著的。这表明,我国大范围气候距平与北半球平均气温距平的统计相关是有一定的物理基础的。

Based on the ana1ysis of the long-range variation of theNorthern Hemisphere mean temperature(NHMT), the effect of the NHMTvariation on the climate in China is discussed. It is shown that there isa significant positive correlation between the temperature anomalies inChina and the NHMT, and the temperature anomaly in the middle andlower reaches of the Changjiang River and the North China Plain is about1.4--1.6 times in magnitude as large as the NHMT anomaly. It is alsoshown that the precipitation anomaly in China is correlated with theNHMT,The significant difference of the 500hPa atmospheric circulationover Eurasia between the warm and cold years in the Northern Hemi-sphere shows that the statistical correlation between the climate in China and the NHMT can be interpreted by some physical processes.