月平均气温预报中初始场作用的估计

EVALUATION OF THE ROLE OF THE INITIAL FIELD IN MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTING

本文用积分共轭方程和基本方程两种方法定量估计初始场在月平均气温预报中的作用,结果表明,其作用甚微,以至可忽略。进一步分析不同尺度初始场扰动的作用得出,全球尺度扰动的作用永不衰减,半球尺度扰动衰减缓慢,其它尺度扰动的作用随波数增加而迅速衰减。

In this study the role of the initial field in monthly meantemperature forecasting is quantitatively evaluated using the integralconjugation equation and the basic equation. It is found that the role israther small and may be neglected. Further analysis of the effect of thefluctuation in the initial field on different scales shows that global-scalefluctuation never attenuates in its effect, hemispheric-scale fluctuationattenuates slowly and fluctuation on the other scales attenuates rapidlywith the increase of wave number.