疾病的时间性分布研究

THE STUDY OF THE TIME DISTRIBUTION ABOUT DISEASE.

目的 :分析淋病发病的时间分布。方法 :采用时序图法、 Poisson分布法及周期性检验方差分析法。结果 :(1)时序图显示淋病发病存在长期上升趋势及周期性波动情况 ;(2 ) Poisson分布拟合结果 :1994、 1995、 1996、 1997各年χ2 值分别为 394.97、 91.74、 39.14、 391.5 6 ,其对应的 P值都 <0 .0 1;(3)周期性方差分析结果为 F =12 .8,P<0 .0 1。结论 :(1)淋病的发病率在每年的 2～ 4月和 9～ 12月是发病的高峰季节 ,且发病存在长期升高的趋势。 (2 )序列图法、

Objective:To analysis the time distribution about gonorrhea and offer evidence for prevention and cure the disease.Methods:Using the time series graph to reveal the changes of case,Using Poisson distribution to analyse the time clustering,and using analysis of variance to test the periodicity.Results:The distribution of cases is not fit Poisson distribution,and ANOVA with periodicity test is F=12 8,P<0 01 .Conclusion:The tend of the gonorrhea incidence is increasing and the incidence has seasonal change that is higher in 2~4 month and in 9~12 month.