华北地区夏季水资源特征分析及其对气候变化的响应(Ⅰ):近40年华北地区夏季水资源特征分析

Feature Analysis of Summer Water Resource in North China and ItsResponse to Climate Change (Ⅰ): Summer Water Resource Feature Analysis Near40 Years in North China

近年来 ,淡水资源匮乏问题已经成为全人类普遍关注的严重问题。华北地区是我国的政治、经济和文化中心 ,该区水资源严重不足 ,缺水问题一直困扰着该区经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高。本文利用NCEP/NCAR的 40a(195 8— 1997年 )再分析资料分析发现 ,近 40a来 ,华北地区年平均水资源略有盈余 ,但水资源年内分布很不均匀 ,一年内仅 6 9月份水资源有盈余 ,其它各月均有不同程度亏损。对华北地区水资源最充足的夏季水资源各分量进行EOF分析 ,结果表明 ,华北地区夏季水资源各分量空间分布的最主要特征都表现为全区一致型 ;最主要的时间变化趋势都表现为自 6 0年代至 80年代中期持续下降 ,80年代中期以后略有回升 ,但回升幅度较小 ,降水仍然低于 40a来的平均水平。对各物理量进行M -K突变检验的结果表明 ,各量在 6 0年代中期前后都发生了一次突变过程 。

Recently, the shortage of the fresh water resource is becoming the serious problem that is concerned by the people all over the world. North China is the center of the politics, economy and culture of China and its water resource is severe insufficient. The improvement of the people living standard and the development of the economy are puzzled by the lack of the water. By using the 40 year reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR we find that there are some surpluses of the annual mean water resource during the near 40 years. But its distribution is not very even during one year. The months that the water resource is superfluous during one year are only June, July, August and September, and the other months are all deficit. The result of EOF analysis for the North China water resource in summer, in which season the water resource is the most enough, shows that the main space distribution characteristics of the water resource variables, are accordant all over the area. The main time variation directions of them are continually decreasing from 60s to 80s and are increasing a little after the middle of 80s. The result of MK catastrophe test for the variables shows that every variable sudden changed at the middle of 60s, but the time of the sudden change is not the same.