我国沿海台风百年遇重大灾害的Poisson分布特征

Poisson Distribution Characteristics for Century Disastrous Typhoon Events along China′s Coastline

使用 1 1 4年西北太平洋台风资料 ,50年台风灾害和灾害指数诊断资料与美国 70年灾害指数的研究进行对比分析 ,研究我国沿海地区代表站的百年遇重大台风灾害的Poisson分布特征和灾害指数与台风强度的分布关系。采用Poisson分布对中国沿海热带气旋致灾机理和灾害特征进行分析研究 ,给出中国北起渤海湾 ,南到广西的广大海岸线上 ,台风登陆致灾度 (灾害分类、致灾频率 ,N年遇度等 )分析 ,指出Poisson分布对描述强破坏力的台风袭击可能性 ,对城市工农业发展的规划设计具有重要的应用价值。

By using 114-year typhoon data in the north west Pacific adopted Poiss ion function,the Poission distribution characteristics of the disastrous typhoon events for a century along China′s coastline from the Bay of Bohai through the South China Sea area are discussed It is indicated that the possibility for se rious typhoon hitting could be described by Poissin distribution It is also fou nd that the results are very useful for program design of city development for i ndustry and agriculture It also points out that typhoon disaster indexes obtain ed with 50 year data in the north west Pacific is coincide with Saffir-simpson indexes by 70 year data in Caribbean Sea area