未来20年上海港集装箱的增长趋势

The Increasing Trend of Shanghai Port Container in the Following 20 Years

综合分析了上海集装箱增长趋势、上海GPD增长的趋势以及上海外贸进出口额与集装箱增长的关系。利用时间序列分析法,对上海外贸进出口额增长率进行分析预测,并利用所得到的结果,结合外贸进出口额与集装箱总量之间的关系,计算出每年集装箱的预测值。在参考相关专家的意见的基础上,对上海港集装箱今后20年的总体走势做出合理的预测。

The increasing of container,the increasing of GDP and the increasing of input and output goods in Shanghai are analyzed in details. The relationship between containers and the amount of input and output goods is very important in predicting the increasing trend of Shanghai Port container. Using time serial analysis,the percentage of increasing of the amount of input and output goods in the following 20 years is predicted. The relationship between containers and the amount of input and output goods is used with the predicted result in order to get the amount of containers of each year in the following 20 years. With the opinion of some experts,a reasonable result is obtained. [