气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型研究

RESEARCH ON INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON REGIONAL ECONOMY

利用经济学“投入-产出”分析方法的基本原理，结合气候变化对工业影响的统计模型、对 农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统，建立了气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型。研究 了当气候变化对工业、农业部门的生产和产品发生影响时，导致的对国民经济其他部门的拉 动需求量和各个部门间的投入-产出流量的变化，从而预测各个部门的国内生产总值和总产 出量，对２０１０，２０２０年的经济发展。综合分析 气候变化对各部门的影响，找出适应区域经济平衡发展的适应对策，为决策者 提供一些参考建议。

Using basic theory of economic input-output analysis,sets up an input-output m athematical model to explore the impact of climate change on regional economy.Th is model combines with the models of climate change on agriculture and industry products .The research provides such a framework for climate impact analysis tha t can reflect the interactions among different sectors,individual and whole eco nomic sectors.It can illustrate the nature of inter-relationships among these e conomic sectors and between regions ,also it incorporates climate change factors into the economic input-output analysis.With regard to natural and social stat us and economy developing scale and speed,the structure and propo rtion of the future first，second，third property,coefficients of the model are adjusted,the economic development in 2010，2020 is predicted consid e ring various impacts associated with climate change on agriculture and industry. Then we propose some adaptation countermeasures of climate change to the decision-mahing department for future developing policy.