滇21井水位前兆特征研究

Precursory Characteristics Study of Water Level in Dian Well No.21

以 10年的观测资料 ,分别用三种方法研究了滇 2 1井的前兆特征。结果表明 :( 1)某年水位谷值与上一年年雨量二者相关较好 ,可据此关系对下一年内井孔附近≥ 6 0级地震作出趋势判断 ;( 2 )标准化后的新序列与井孔周围 4 5 0km范围≥ 6级地震对应较好 ;( 3 )日幅差大于正的二倍均方差是一个较好的短期预报指标。

Three methods were used to study the data in Dian Well No.21 observed in the past 10 years. The results indicate that the valley value of water level is well related to the rainfall quantity of the previous year, which can be used to make a tendency judgement of M≥6.0 earthquakes within a scope of 450km. The daily amplitude difference greater than +2 times of variance is a fairly good index for short-term prediction.