我国经济增长支撑点的统计研究

本文利用多元统计分析方法,就我国经济增长影响因素的影响度进行了较为系统而又细致的计量分析。文章指出,近几年来,我国经济增长之所以缓慢,基本原因在于内需不足,根本原因在于经济制度的市场化进程。经济制度的市场化进程,在很大程度上增大了人们收入和支出预期的不确定性,从而使居民特别是城镇居民的消费行为趋于谨慎。因此,为确保国民经济的回升,我们应着重于有关政策的完善与调整。

The paper applies the multivariate s tatistical model to verify systematically and carefully the influentia l fac-tors of economic growth. It points ou t that the cause of the slow down in rec ent economic growth lies basically i n weak domestic demand and fundamentally i n reforms of economic institutions. The marketization of economic syste ms increase the uncertainty in income and expenditure expectations to a great degree,which leads to the cautious consump tion of consumers. Therefore,we should pay nuch attion to the perfection and adj ustment of relative policies to ensu re the picking -up of our economy.