摘要
我们应用生态-经济学模型,研究了波罗的海国家关于将每一个国家的营养物质排放总量减少一半的宣言。这一模型包括以国家为基础的减排污染物费用函数和描述磷和氮如何从一国流动到另一国的转移系数(由波罗的海水文学模型估算而得)。结果表明,就氮而言,目前的减排政策和成本-效益政策相比,减排费用非常高,而且各国受益不平衡。可以预料,那些减排边际成本高的国家,其执行上述减排协定以及对氮的减排投资的兴趣不会太大,这一结论已被我们的数据所证实。因此,我们建议并概要地提出一种联合执行政策,以使减排具有成本效益并鼓励进行减排投资。
We study the Baltic Sea countries' declaration to reduce nutrient loads by 50% in each country in an ecological-economic model. The model consists of country-based abatement-cost functions, and transfer coefficients describing how phosphorus and nitrogen flow from one country to another, as estimated in a hydrologlcal model of the Baltic Sea. We show that for nitrogen in particular the overall abatement coals of the current policy are much higher and that the benefits are more uneven than under a cost-efficien! policy. Consequently, one can expect that countries with high marginal abatemenl costs have the least incenlives to follow the agreement and to invest in nitrogen abatement, This is also confirmed by our data. Therefore, we suggest and outline a joint implementation policy to promole cost efficiency and to increase incentives for investments.
