系统安全预测的本质与组合预测

Essence of System Safety Prediction and Combined Prediction

详细分析了系统安全预测的内在规律性、有效时间长度及有效性等方面的问题 ,提出了安全预测的本质就是建立系统安全可预测的思想。并针对目前的安全预测方法 ,提出了组合预测法 。

After analyzing in detail the inherent law, the length of valid time and the validity of the system safety prediction, authors point out that the essence of safety prediction is to form an idea that the system safety is predictable. In view of current safety prediction method, the method of combined prediction is suggested so as to improve the accuracy and integrity of the prediction.