阜阳市19572000年肾综合征出血热季节性特征分析

Analyze HFRS Seasonal Characters in Fuyang City from 1957 to 2000

目的 :对阜阳市 44年肾综合征出血热 (HFRS)的季节性特征及不同年代季节性特征的变化情况进行分析。方法 :运用集中度、圆形分布法及卡方检验进行统计分析。结果 :季节性分布有高度显著性 (P <0 .0 1) ,高峰时点为 12月 15日 ,标准差为 5 9天 ;在 44年的四个不同年代中 ,季节性特征发生了一些明显的变化 ,峰值降低 (P <0 .0 1) ,病人分布的离散程度增加 ,流行间歇期 (5月 7月 )的发病构成从 0 .75 %上升到 16 .92 % (P <0 .0 1)。结论 :HFRS在阜阳市存在着明显的季节性 ,这种特征近 2 0年发生了明显的变化。

In order to analyze HFRS seasonal characters in the 44 years and the changes in different years, concentrative degrees and circular distribution Chi-square test were applied. The results indicated that a highly obvious character was found in the seasonal distribution, (P<0.01), the high-water mark was on December 15. The standard difference was between 59 days. The seasonal charater had obviously changed in four periods during the 44 years. The peak value had gone down (P<0.01) and the degree of the case separation had increased. The intermittence of the epidemic disease (May-July) had risen from 0.75% to 16.92% (P<0.01). The results confirmed that HFRS has the obvious seasonal character in Fuyang, which has obviously changed in the past 20 years.