滑坡预测预报非线性动力学方法

Study on nonlinear dynamics in landslide prediction

对滑坡预测预报方法的进展进行了系统分析 ,特别是对非线性理论的特点及其在滑坡预测中的作用和意义进行了阐述 .并且 ,基于对地质体复杂性的认识 ,强调了人类专家经验知识的重要性 ,指出定性、定量综合集成的方法 ,如专家系统预测方法等是特别值得关注的 。

The paper has systematically summarized the advance of scientific prognostic methods, especially the nonlinear dynamic methods such as chaotic dynamics, synergetics as well as fractal methods, and their application in landslide prediction. At the same time, it points out that more attention should be paid to the combined methods by quantitative methods and qualitative ones based on the complex features of geological body. At last, it prospects the key points of landslide prognosis and the development trend in the future.