水运货运量预测系统分析

System analysis for forecast system of transport volume in Jinsha River

运用系统工程的理论和方法 ,对金沙江流域运量预测系统及其影响因素的主要方面进行系统层次与结构分析 ,初步构筑了系统预测模型的基本框架 ,可为运量预测模型的建立提供指导 。

By means of systems engineering theories and methods, the forecast system of transport volume in Jinsha River is studied by system analysis. On the basis of system analysis of the transport volume forecast and the influencing factors, the framework of the forecast and model is primarily formed. This is a theoretic guidance for establishing mathematical model of transport volume forecast. The authors hope to offer the reference for navigation planning and the cascade development of the Jinsha River.