全球变化对我国脆弱生态区经济开发的影响

IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON ECONOMIC EXPLOITATION ACTIVITIES IN ECOLOGICALLY VULNERABLE REGIONS

脆弱生态区是指对环境因素的改变反映敏感、而维持自身稳定的可塑性较小的生态环境系统 ,内部结构的不稳定性和对外界干扰的敏感性是它的两个最主要的特征。全球变化和经济开发活动是对脆弱生态区产生影响的最重要的两种外界干扰活动。全球环境变化会严重影响到脆弱生态系统的结构 ,并进而影响到其经济开发活动。目前我国生态环境急剧恶化 ,全国脆弱生态区的面积占国土总面积的1 5,且其中的北方地区为全球变暖的高敏感区 ,因此讨论全球变化对我国脆弱生态区经济开发的影响具有重要的现实意义。该文在前人工作的基础上 ,结合我国生态环境的现状、特点及全球变化对我国脆弱生态区的影响 ,利用国际应用系统分析研究所发展并改进的农业生态地带模型 (AEZ)。评估了全球变化对我国土地生产潜力的影响 ,分析了全球变化对我国脆弱生态区经济开发活动的可能影响 。

An ecologically vulnerable region refers to a kind of ecological one which is sensitive to outside disturbances. Its ecological stability is relatively worse and its resources and environment are apt to develop towards the direction which is unfavorble for human use. The non stability of its inner structure and the sensitivity to the outside disturbances are the most fundamental properties of the ecologically vulnerable region. Global change and economic development are important external factors that affect ecologically vulnerable regions and are interactive. Global change affects the structure and function of the vulnerable ecological system both positively and negatively. As a result, the economic activities in these regions are also affected. Eco environment in China has become increasingly worse and the area of vulnerable regions has exceeded 194.15×10 4 km 2, and interlocking area of farming and pasturing in northern China is highly sensitive to global change. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of global change on economic activities in ecologically vulneable regions. Based on previous studies, considering present situation of China's eco-environment and impact of global change, the paper evaluates the land potential productivity by using agro ecological zonal model (AEZ). In order to eliminate the negative impact of global change on economic development activities in ecologically vulnerable regions, possible impacts and countermeasures are probed in the study.