基于门限小波包的负荷预测方法的研究 (二)短期负荷预测

RESEARCH OF THE METHOD OF LOAD FORECASE BASE ON GATE-BOUNDARY WAVELT PACKAGE (Ⅱ)SHORT-TERM LOAD FORCASE

根据对电力负荷曲线的分析研究得知 :短期负荷曲线具有周期规律性和波动性。而门限小波包既可以自定义自变量域来对应其周期规律性 ,又可以因其具有良好的局部性来准确描述其波动性 ,依此建立了基于门限小波包的短期负荷预测模型 ,并提出了随机调整函数的概念 ,得到满意的预测结果。

By the research of short-term load curve we can know the character of short-term load curve:periodic regularity and wave propagation character.Because gate-boundary wavelet package is user-defined independent variable and favorable partial,we can use it to research the periodic regularity and describe wave propagation character.According to the characteristic,we set up a based on gate-boundary wavelet package short-term forecast model,and posed the concept of random regulation function,meanwhile gain the satisfying forecasting results.