区域水资源量的估算及预测分析——以南京地区为例

Calculation and Prediction of Regional Water Resources

分析了南京地区的水资源状况 ,从地表热量平衡、水量平衡的基本理论出发 ,结合南京地区的气象、水文、土壤等资料建立了区域水资源量估算模型 ,计算了该地区的地表水、地下水及水资源总量 ,根据实际资料进行了模型检验 ,并对未来不同气候变化情景下的水资源状况进行了预测分析 ,提出了该地区水资源合理利用的方案。

Water resources are the indispensable materials for the existence and development of mankind. The goal of this paper is to analyze the impact factors of water resources amount and exploitation and consume status of Nanjing region, then provide scientific guidance for reasonable use and protection of water resources. Regional water resources include ground and underground water resources coming from precipitation. To Nanjing region, they also include the water amount coming from the Yangtze River, which passes through and provides water for this region. By analyzing the water resources of Nanjing region, this paper adopts basic theories of land surface heat and water balance, combines with meteorological, hydrological, soil condition and economy development to develop an calculation and evaluation model of regional water resources amount. This model is used to calculate the amount of this region′s ground water resources, underground water resources and total water resources. Based on actual data, the paper tests the model. The result shows the model is suitable because the variation between the result and the actual data is less than 8%. In this model, the temperature and precipitation change are fully considered as important influence factors to the amount of ground water, underground water and regional water resources. The paper also predicts and analyzes future water resources amount in future thirty different kinds of climate scenarios, that is: temperature increasing 0.0℃,0.5℃,1.0℃,1.5℃,2.0℃,2.5℃ and precipitation varying ±20%, 0%, ±10% respectively. It convinces that climate change can impact the water resources greatly. Precipitation change influences water resources more severely than temperature change does. Decreasing amount caused by temperature increasing 1.0℃ is equal to that of caused by precipitation deducing 3.3%. Carefully analyzing the actual social and economic development of this region, the paper gives a reasonable proposal of using water resources. The government and each sector should pay attention to constructing hydraulic project, monitoring water resources and harnessing wastewater. These measurements are essential to this region′s future economic and social development.