对人民币汇率制度的思考──尝试灵活的多元钉住制

Reflection on RMB Exchange Rate System: Pegging on Multi-currency

人民币有管理的浮动近年来实际表现为钉住美元，但中美两国间生产要素无法自由流动且两国通胀率存在巨大差异，因此，单一钉住美元一方西不利于准确评价汇率政策的效果，另一方面不利于提高出口商品的综合竞争力。而选择浮动汇率制度不符合中国目前的实际．在此情况下采取钉住多元货币组合的汇率制度，则可以使人民币基准汇率更能与中国的对外经济相联系，降低与美国以外的国家进行贸易的汇率风险。同时多元钉住制让人民币汇率及时随国际外汇市场的波动而调整，有助于内外均衡的调整和实现。

RMB exchange rate system has in fact been pegged on USD in recent years. In view of the fact that essen- tial production factors cannot move freely between China and the U. S. and that there is a great discrepancy in infla- tion rate between the two countries, the single pegging of RMB on USD is neither favorable to assessing the effect of exchange rate policy correctly nor good to improving comprehensive competitiveness of exports. When a floating rate system is unsuitable in China at present, adopting a system of pegging on a basket of correncies will connect the ex- change rate to China's foreign economy mere closely and reduce the exchange rate risks from doing transactions out- side the U. S.. Also, pegging on multi-currency means RMB exchange rate can be adjusted according to the fluctu- ation of international foreign exchange market, which is advantageous to the adjustment and realization of internal and external equilibrium of economy.