基于模糊马尔可夫链状原理的灾害预测──以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段为例

Forecast of environmental hazards by fuzzy Markovian chain theory: taking Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as an example

根据新亚欧大陆桥新疆段近４０年灾害统计资料，基于模糊马尔可夫链状预测的方法与原理，通过模糊状态的划分和模糊运算，根据隶属度最大原则，确定所属的状态，对新疆段受损区段数进行了预测，预测准确率为７５％，取得了预期的效果．

According to the statistic data on hazards occurred in Xinjiang line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge in recent 40 years, the number of dameged sectors in Xinjiang line is analyzed and forecasted by using fuzzy-Markovian chain forecasting method and principle. First, based on the analysis of the characteristics of time-sequence distribution of damaged situation, the damaged grade was determined by fuzzy state division and fuzzy operation of damaged frequency in Xinjiang line; Then each state of damaged situation was defined according to its maximum principle; And at last the damaged situation in future was forecasted. The accuracy of the forecast is about 75%. Re-sult shows that the method presented above in this paper is accurate, scientific and practical.