利用卫星云图和天气形势分析9914号台风路径

Forecast of 9914 typhoon motion by analysis of cloud image and weather conditions

本文对 991 4号台风的天气形势和卫星云系特征进行了详细的分析 .结果表明 :副热带高压及西风带槽、脊的配置和演变 ,对台风强度和移动路径尤其是台风路径的转向影响很大 .副高的增强、减弱是台风发生转向的重要条件 .螺旋云带的变化通常是台风未来移动及其强度变化的强信号 .眉状云带是台风北上的重要特征云系 .

In the paper, the weather conditions and the cloud image for 14th typhoon of 1999 are analyzed in detail.The results show that the variations of subtropical high system,westerly troughs and ridges and interactions among them exert an important impact on the intensity of typhoon, typhoon motion, especially on the sudden turning of typhoon. The intensifying and weakening of subtropical high system play a very important role in the sudden turning of typhoon. The variation of spiral cloud band is often a strong signal to the variation of typhoon's intensity and motion. Occurrence of eyebrow cloud band means that typhoon will move toward north. In the upper atmosphere, typhoon always moves toward the strong minus vorticity center or toward the middle point of the line between two strong minus vorticity centers.