对地震预测中若干问题的思考

Ponderation over Some Problems on Earthquake Prediction

预测的概念是随着人类对客观事物的认识的深入而不断发展的。在我们讨论某一现象能否预测时 ,应该考虑到这种发展变化。当我们把预测的概念理解为一个确定性的概念时 ,那么对于随机现象的预测是不可能的。一旦我们把预测的概念扩展到概率预测的范畴时 ,随机现象则被认为是可以预测的。如果把地震预测方法或意见的提出比做“酿酒”的话 ,那么对地震预测方法或意见的评估可以比做“品酒”,而地震预测方法或意见的综合则可比做“勾兑”。酿酒是基础 ,而品酒对酿酒有着重要的指导作用 ,只有勾兑 ,才能出好酒。评估和综合相比 ,首先是评估 ,在评估的基础上 ,才能有正确的综合。笔者认为 :目前的倾向是重“酿酒”,轻“品酒”和“勾兑”。即使品酒 ,也常是由酿酒者自酿自品 ,这会影响其客观性和科学性。盲目追求高对应率一方面可能会得到一些虚假的预测指标 ,另一方面还可能会错过一些有意义的预测指标 ,特别是一些短期的预测指标。

The conception of prediction constantly changes with deeper human understanding of objective things.While discussing whether a phenomenon can be predicted,we should consider such developments and changes.When we regard the conception of prediction as deterministic,it is impossible to predict random phenomenon.Once we extend the conception of prediction to the category of probability prediction,random phenomenon is considered to be predictable.If the presentation of earthquake prediction methods and opinions is likened to “making wine”,the appraisal of earthquake prediction methods and opinions can be likened to “sampling wine”,and the synthesis of earthquake prediction methods and opinions can be likened to “mixing wine”.Making wine is the basis,but wine sampling plays an important guiding role in making wine,only through mixing wine can we make good wine.Comparing appraisal with synthesis,appraisal takes the first place,correct synthesis is based on the appraisal.The author of this paper considers the current tendency is that more stress is put on “making wine ”than on “sampling wine”and “mixing wine”.Even though sampling wine,it is always done by the wine makers themselves,thus its objectivity and scientific nature will be influenced.Blindly chasing high corresponding rate may lead us to some false prediction indexes and may lose some significant prediction indexes,especially some short term prediction indexes.