油气储量市场定价博弈模型的建立与均衡分析

ESTABLISHMENT AND EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF GAMING MODEL OF MARKET PRICING OF OIL AND GAS RESERVES

随着我国石油天然气工业从勘探开发一体化经营向勘探开发分离经营的逐步转变，油气储量资产将作为一种商品在市场上进行交易，这就必须要求确定储量的市场价值。对国内外文献资料的检索表明，在油气储量资产化的研究中，有多种计算确定油气储量资产价值的定量方法，其中比较流行的是采用净现值法。但实际上，这种方法所计算出的储量价值只能作为确定储量市场交易价格的参考。在公开的市场交易中，储量价格的最终确定还依赖于参加交易双方所掌握的信息量及讨价还价的策略。因此，文章提出采用博弈论方法来研究油气储量资产市场定价问题。首先我们建立了油气储量资产市场定价的博奔模型；然后采用均衡分析方法分析了油气储量市场定价博弈均衡的条件；最后分有限次博弈和无限次博弈两种情况进行讨论，并得出相应的结论，即有限次博弈使得某一方获得全部盈余，而无限次博弈使得有耐心和先出价的一方得到更多盈余。

Along with a step-by-step transition of oil and gas industry in China from integrated management of the exploration and development to their separated management, as a commodity the oil and gas reserve assets will be traded in the market, so it is necessary to determine the market value of the reserves. Through looking up it is found that there are many quantitative methods of calculating the market value of oil and gas reserve assets in domestic and foreign literatures, in which the net present value method is commonly adopted. In practice, however, the market value of the reserves calculated by such a method can only be taken as a reference to determining the market price of the reserves. In an open market, the determination the final price of the reserves is still dependent upon the information content obtained by the trading parties and their bargaining strategy, therefore it is proposed to study the market pricing problem with oil and gas reserve assets by use of gaming theory. Firstly, in the paper, a gaming model of market pricing of oil and gas reserve assets is established, then the conditions of gaming equilibrium of market pricing of oil and gas reserves are analyzed by use of equilibrium analysis method, and then through discussing both finite-time game and infinite-time game, it is concluded that the finte-time game causes a certain side to get all the surpluses and the infinite-time game makes the first buyer obtain more surpluses.