旱灾的概率分布规律及其成果应用初探

Preliminary investigation on law of drought probability distribution and application of research the results

依照旱作物旱灾估测方法 ,对几个代表站有旱灾的年份 ,逐年进行旱灾计算 ,经系列分析 ,以受旱作物欠收幅度表示的旱灾概率为均匀分布。通过回归式确定有关参数后 ,应用这一理论对吉林省西部干旱地区进行了旱灾测算、干旱经济分区。

The article calculates the drought years of several representative stations yearly in accordance with the drought evaluation method of drought resistant crops and demonstrates that the drought probability indicated by deficient harvests margin of drought suffering crops is a mean distribution with a series of analysis and applies this theory to drought calculation, aridness economy distribution, irrigation quota design and so on for the arid area in west Jilin Province after relevant parameters was assured through return equation.