全球副热带高压和赤道辐合带演变规律的分析和应用

Analysis on the varying laws of the global subtropical high and the equatorial ITCZ and its application

根据卫星观测的OLR(射出长波辐射)资料,分析了全球副热带高压和赤道辐合带的演变规律,探讨了长江流域出现特大洪涝年的异常特征及持续性。结果表明,密切关注11月—2月全球副热带高压的异常分布特征和3—6月赤道辐合带南侧低纬洋面积云对流的强弱,是预报长江流域特大洪涝发生的重要着眼点。

The monthly mean OLR data arc used to analyse the varying laws of the global subtropical high and equatorial ITCZ. The pcrsistense and anomalous features in the heavy flood years over the Changjiang valley is investigated. It is shown that much closer attention to the anomalous clistribution of the global subtropical high in November-Feburary and the intensity of the cumutus in south to the equatorial ITCZ over the low-lafitute oceans in March -June wouldlay a sound foundation to heavy flood forecasting,