如何防范金融风险

How to prevent from financial crisis

经济周期的不同阶段应适用不同的政策,才能取得最有效的经济效果。如果没有1992年政府启动“放水冲沙”,就不会有1993年“软着陆”,更不会有1996年银行不良资产“水落石出”。由于银行沉淀了大量不良资产,信贷权趋于收缩,货币政策也因此而失效。但是,除了银行体系之外,目前尚没有其它有效机制能够使得资金真正到达具有生产能力的企业和个人手中。比较利弊得失之后,作者主张应该放松银行信贷条件,提高货币政策效果,同时加强信贷管理。银行风险的底限在于财政有能力补贴、清算居民存款。如此,方能确保“输血”的成功,保证正常的融资渠道畅通,复活“毛细血管”的功能,微观基础的面貌也因此而焕然一新。

Policies will achieve complete success when they are worked out to suite local conditions in each stage of economic cycle.If the government did not loosen its policy in 1992,there were not soft landing in 1993 and increasing bad assets in 1996.Since state owned banks accumulate a vast amount of bad assets,they concentrate their credit rights,so the money policy loses its effectiveness.Until now,there is no other effective mechanism delivering funds to the firm and individual with productivity except bank channel.By comparing I put forward some proposals with loosening credit condition,at same time strengthening credit management,so as to improve effectiveness of money policy.The minimum of bank risk is capabilities of fiscal subsidy and clearing individual deposit.With the money transfusion ensuring successful,financial channel would open ahead,so that function of money capillary would be revived,and the fact of micro economy would take on an altogether new aspect.