广州市麻疹发病特点的年度变迁及趋势预测

The Changes of the Ages on Epidemiological Characteristics of Measles in Guangzhou and Its Trend Analysis

目的 了解广州市人群中近 10年麻疹发病特点及其发病趋势 .方法 采用 1991～ 2 0 0 0年广州市法定传染病报告订正年报表资料对我市麻疹发病进行流行病学分析 ,并用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测 2 0 0 1～ 2 0 0 2年全市及中心区、边缘区和县级市麻疹发病趋势 .结果 麻疹发病呈上升趋势 ,其中边缘区麻疹发病率上升最为迅速 ,预测到2 0 0 1年我市麻疹发病率达到 4.81/10万 ,其中边缘区达到 7.5 5 /10万 .麻疹发病特点为 :地区分布以边缘区发病为主 ;发病有明显的季节性 ;发病性别男多于女 ,发病年龄以 0～ 3岁儿童发病为主 ,近年来发病年龄有高移趋势 ,15岁及以上发病比例构成逐年增大 ,流动人口占常住人口发病的比例较大 ;发病职业以散居儿童为主 ,近年来干部、工人发病构成比例逐年增加 .结论 近年来我市麻疹发病上升趋势明显 ,应加强麻疹监测和麻疹疫苗的预防接种工作 ,加强散居儿童和高年龄段人群麻疹免疫预防工作 .

Objective To find out the epidemiological characteristics and the incidence trend of measles in Guangzhou in the last 10 years.Methods Data was from the Annual Report of Notified Infectious Disease in Guangzhou during year 1991～2000.The Grey Dynamic Model GM(1,1) was employed to predict the incidence rate of measles in Guangzhou, in the central area and the marginal area of Guangzhou and in the counties in 2001～2002.Results The incidence of measles ,especially in the marginal area of Guangzhou,showed a tendency to increase.In year 2001 the incidence rate of measles in Guangzhou is predicted to be 4.81/10 5 and the incidence rate of measles in the marginal area of Guangzhou would be 7.55/10 5. During year 1991-2000,cases of measles were distributed sporadically but relatively concentrated in the marginal area of Guangzhou. The incidence varied with seasons.Most of the patients were males, aged 0～3 years and from the other part of the country.But in recent years, the number of patients aged 15 years and over whose usual occupations were cadres and workers tended to increase.Conclusions Surveillance of measles should be strengthened.More effort should be put into the immunization against measles ,especially in the transient population.