从套利率、交易成本和贸易中断看中国粮食市场的发育

Arbitrage,Transaction Costs,and Autarky:China's Grain Market Development

中国粮食市场是经济转型期市场发展的典型代表。本文利用 1988～ 1995年间各省 每旬的粮食价格数据资料 ,估计各时期地区间粮食贸易的等界模型 ,验证了经济转型时期 市场发育的多样性特点。作者估计了每一时期的套利率、交易成本和自给自足率。结果 表明 ,贸易壁垒单因素无法解释中国市场发展的进程和发育程度 ;基础设施瓶颈、运行机 制、生产专业化政策等也是影响市场发育的重要因素 ;政策制定者应该关注市场基础设施 建设中的瓶颈问题并减少对地区间市场贸易的直接行政干预。

China's grain market is a typical case of transition economy. Using tri-monthly Chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995, authers estimate a parity-bounds model of inter-regional trade for four sub-periods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition. For each period, authers estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders, the transaction costs between location pairs, and the likelihood that regions do not trade. Trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time. Infrastructure bottlenecks, managerial incentive reforms, and production specialization policies all were likely important factors affecting market performance. This implies that policy makers should pay more attention to the market infrastructure development and phase out direct market intervention on inter-regional trade.