河北磁县、河南林县食管癌流行趋势

The Prevalence Trend of Esophageal in Cixian of Hebei Province and Linxian of Henan Province

目的 对我国河北磁县、河南林县食管癌发病死亡率进行趋势分析及预测。方法 采用磁县、林县食管癌发病、死亡资料进行流行病学研究分析 ,并用灰色系统GM (1,1)模型预测其发病率、死亡率趋势。结果 近十年来磁县、林县食管癌的发病率和死亡率均呈下降趋势 ,但较为缓慢。预测 2 0 0 2年食管癌发病率男性为 99.6 0 / 10万 ,女性为 6 5 .81/ 10万 ,食管癌死亡率男性为75 .5 4 / 10万 ,女性为 4 4 .76 / 10万 ,食管癌发病率、死亡率均仍属较高水平。结论 磁县、林县食管癌发病率、死亡率均仍属较高水平 ,提示我们应该继续深入地在该地区开展食管癌的综合防治工作 ,坚持不懈。

ObjectiveTo analyze and predict the trend of the esophageal incidence and mortality rate in Cixian and Linxian. Methods Use Grey Mode(1,1)to predict the incidence and mortality rate of esophageal of the two county. Results There is a slight decline during the ten years from 1988 to 1997. Predicting the male incidence will be 9.96/10,000 and female will be 6.67/10,000, the mortality rate of male will be 6.955/10,000, female 4.477/10,100 in 2002. Conclusion The incidence and mortality rate of esophageal will be a high level in 2002. further measure of prevention and control must be done.