发展中国家的利率、储蓄与投资:一种理论综合与政策框架——对麦金农一肖两假说的再探讨

The Interest Rate, Saving and Investment in Developing Countries--A Theoretical Synthesis and a Policy Frame

运用三阶段生命周期消费理论构造的储蓄—投资行为的微观模型,可以分析存款在财富积累过程不同阶段中的不同作用,表明利率政策通过既影响内源融资投资的收益又影响外源融资的可能性从而影响资本形成。基于微观模型的储蓄—投资行为的宏观模型,可以阐释利率对总储蓄、总投资及货币需求的作用机制。基于跨时期理论的分析框架,说明了麦金农—肖两假说间的相容性,强调了利率作用于投资储蓄及手持资产等决定时的时滞性。上述理论对我国如何确定总投资、总储蓄及货币需求,提供了有益的借鉴。

A micro model of the saving-investment activity, based on the theory of life cycle, is built here. The deposit has different roles in different stages of wealth accumulation. The interest rate has an operational mechanism on total saving, investment and demand of currency, which is based on a macro model. Using the micro model, we may prove the compatibility between Ronald Mckinnon's hypothesis and Edward Shaw's hypothesis, and the lag of interest effect is analyzed. How to define the total investment and saving and the demand of currency in China is an imperative problem.