面向电力市场的短期负荷预测系统设计及实现

DESIGN AND REALIZATION OF A SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING SYSTEM UNDER ELECTRICITY MARKET

考虑近期我国电力市场需求 ,提出了一种较实用的短期负荷预测系统构架。它由信息采集和管理系统、负荷预测系统、信息监测和计划考核系统、计划制定和上报系统构成。提出了扩展短期负荷预测的概念和预测方法 ,完成当日剩余时段负荷点的重新预测 ,为实时电力市场日计划修正提供依据。短期、扩展短期、超短期负荷预测环节作为一个整体组成负荷预测系统 ,满足不同时段的负荷预测需求。信息采集和管理系统完成负荷预测前期的信息采集和分析 ,提高信息的有效性和可用性。信息监测和计划考核系统对上述信息进行监视 ,并对负荷预测系统进行控制。计划制定与上报系统依据预测结果制定负荷计划并上报。

Taking account of the demand of electricity market in China, a practical design of short-term load forecasting system is presented in this paper.The design is composed of four components.The first component collects and analyzes pre- forecasting data for enhancing its validity and availability.To offer a foundation for adjusting the day load plan, a conception of extended short-term load forecasting is defined, which provides a function to re-forecast the loads from now to the end of time period in one day.As a whole,short-term,extended short-term and very short-term load forecasting sections are combined into a main component.Original load data is detected and modified by data checking section,which,with the plan checking section,forms the third component to control the forecasting system.Based upon forecasted results, the day load plan is worked out and reported by the final component.The design principles and implementation methods are described completely.The practicability of this design is demonstrated by results of applied cases. .