摘要
分析了城市燃气负荷的特点和影响因素 ,根据指数平滑预测法的原理 ,建立了城市燃气短期负荷预测线性模型和二次曲线模型。实际预测结果表明 ,平滑常数为 0 .
This thesis analyses the properties and influencing factors for the load of city gas. According to the principle of means of the index flatness forecast, it establishes the straight line and curve mathematic model of short term load forecast of city gas. Result of forecasting through the theory in practical example means that the accuracy of straight line model with 0.3 flatness constant is very high.
出处
《煤气与热力》
2001年第6期483-486,共4页
Gas & Heat
关键词
城市燃气
短期负荷
燃气负荷
预测
指数平滑预测
city gas load
short term load
daily load
forecast of gas load
index flatness forecast
