一个热带气旋移向变化的判据

A STABILITY CRITERION FOR THE DIRECTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

本文对热带气旋移向突变进行了动力学分析,得到影响路径变化的主要因子,并在此基础上设计了一个诊断气旋移向稳定性的判据,经两百多次计算检验,证实其准确率达84％强。

In this paper, a dynamic analysis is made for the process of abrupt changes in the direction of tropical cyclone movements, deriving the main factors which affect the changes in the movement track. On the basis of this, a criterion for the diagnosis of the stability of cyclone tracks is contrived. More than two hundred tests have verified that the accuracy of the criterion is over 84%.