血吸虫病防治需求预测和血防资源筹集研究

RESEARCH ON NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND FINANCING FOR SCHISTOSOMIASIS CONTROL IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

目的 探索世行贷款中国血吸虫病控制项目结束后血防需求预测和血防经费的筹集方案。方法 收集全省 7年间血吸虫病流行变动资料 ,采用多种方法预测防治过程中血吸虫病流行趋势 ,选择适用的预测方法。对 19个县 1998年的血防工作、各渠道血防投入、防治效果等进行现场调查、核实 ,分析各渠道投入所占比例、血防措施单位成本、投入与流行程度、效果的关系等。根据预测疫情、血防措施单位成本等计算一个地区血防总需求。根据各渠道血防投入比例、农民收入及物价变动率等 ,计算不同的血防投入者应分担的血防总需求的数量。结果 移动平均数法是预测防治过程中血吸虫病流行趋势较适合的方法。19个县 1998年血防总投入为 2 5 6 3.14万元 ;其中 ,县财政拨款占 2 1.5 3% ,上级财政补贴占 3.36 % ,世行贷款占 16 .5 6 % ,县血防站创收转投入占 2 9.2 1% ,村民投入占 2 9.34 %。 8项主要血防措施单位成本为查病 6 .14元 /人次、治病 12 .5 6元 /人次、查牛 6 .34元 /头次、治牛 2 0 .88元 /头次、查螺 0 .0 8元 / m2 、基础灭螺 0 .2 9元 / m2 ,药物灭螺 0 .31元 / m2 ,土埋灭螺 0 .85元 / m2 。结论 研究获得了血吸虫病防治需求预测和血防资源筹集模式。

Objective To find a solution for the financing problem after the ending of World Bank Loan project for Schistosomiasis Control in China.Methods Information on schistosomiasis prevalence changes of the province were collected. A proper method was selected from several prediction methods. Field investigation were used to collect data related to input and effectiveness. The input proportions from different sources, unit cost, input, prevalence and effectiveness, and the relationship among them were analyzed. According to the proportions, rural people income, and price changing rate, the total needed funds were calculated for different sources. Results Satisfactory results were got by using 'Moving Average' method for predicting the prevalence of schistosomiasis. In 1998, the total schistosomiasis control inputs of 19 counties were 25631400 RMB Yuan. Amongst 21.53% was from county governments, 3 36% from governments above county level, 16 56% from World Bank Loan, 29 21% from schistosomiasis control stations, and 29 34% from villagers Unit costs for 8 control measures were 6 14 Yuan/person for examination, 12 56 Yuan/person for treatment, 6 34 Yuan/cattle for examining cattle, 20 88 Yuan/cattle for treatment of cattle, 0 08 Yuan/m2 for finding snails, 0 29 Yuan/m2 for weeding, 0 31 Yuan/m2 for killing snails by drug, and 0 85 Yuan/m2 for burying snails. Conclusion The formulae and models for prediction of schistosomiasis control needs and financing were got.