中国股票市场与货币政策新挑战

The Chinese Stock Market and New Challenge for Monetary Policy

本文以股票市场影响宏观经济和货币政策效应的角度来分析现阶段我国股票市场与货币政策间关系这一问题。首先分析股票市场对经济增长的贡献和股市财富效应 ,研究显示目前我国股票市场对经济增长的贡献并不显著 ;其次分析股票市场对货币需求和货币流速的影响 ,研究发现股票市场对货币需求及货币流速均已经开始产生较不显著的作用。结合以上分析 ,最后文中建议现阶段我国货币政策目标与股票市场保持适度距离 ,但不能忽视对股票市场发展的关注。

This paper analyses the relationship between the stock market and monetary policy in China by using the new angle of effect of stock market on macroeconomic and monetary policy. Firstly, we analyze the stock market contribution to the economic growth and the stock market wealth effect. We find that the Chinese stock market is not very robust to the economic growth; then we investigate the influence of stock market on money demand and money velocity. The coefficient is very slight, but it does work. Based on the analysis, we can draw the conclusion that the role of stock market in the macroeconomics is still too weak, but it began to effect the money demand and money velocity. Therefore, we propose that the target of monetary policy should keep certain distance with the stock market now, but should not neglect its development.