摘要
灾变的发生具有大强度、小概率、复杂性 (多因子相互作用 )、混沌性 (非常规趋势 )和突变性 (量变到质变 ,能量积累后的突然释放 )的特点 ,使得用于线性系统的常规预测方法 (统计预测 )无能为力。面临目前灾变预测的两难境地 ,开展宏微观结合、多学科交叉的多尺度和多途径综合研究是最好的选择。要对灾变做出预警 ,就必须找到引发突变的触发点和临界值 ,而这必须以
The characteristics of bio disaster,that is,its strong intensity,low probability,complexity(interaction of multiple factors),chaotic(irregular tendency)and catastrophic(outbreak after extended accumulation)properties,make the conventional forecast methodology(statistical forecasting)helpless.The best way to extricate ourselves from the dilemma would be a comprehensive research by multi scale,multidisciplinary and macro microcosmic approaches,and trying to discover the trigger point and threshold of the catastrophic event based on the 3S and entomological radar techniques and nonlinear sciences.
出处
《南京农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第4期41-45,共5页
Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University
基金
国家 973项目 (G2 0 0 0 0 0 16 2 10 )
国家 94 8项目 (2 0 10 6 5 )
