用MARKAL模型研究中国未来可持续能源发展战略

Study on China's future sustainable energy development strategy using MARKAL model

为研究中国未来可持续能源发展战略 ,在对未来社会经济发展进行合理的假设基础上 ,应用中国 MARKAL 模型 ,对 1995～ 2 0 5 0年间中国终端能源消费及构成、一次能源消费及构成、电力构成、二氧化碳排放量等进行了研究。分析了终端能源消费中油气电比重的增加、先进高效的火电机组以及新能源与可再生能源和核能的应用对减排二氧化碳的作用。此外 ,还应用该模型对由煤制油品、煤制氢等满足未来急剧增长的交通运输燃料的需求以及由煤制合成气实现城市清洁能源的大规模应用进行了研究。

China MARKAL model, an integrated energy and environment model, is built to study China's future sustainable energy development strategy. On the basis of reasonable assumptions for future social and economic development, the model is employed to study China's final energy consumption and mix, primary energy consumption and mix, power generation and mix, CO 2 emission etc, through 1995 to 2050. The contributions of increased share of oil, gas and electricity in the final energy consumption, and applications of advanced thermal power generation technologies as well as new and renewable energy and nuclear to CO 2 mitigation are analyzed. Moreover, oil products and hydrogen making from coal to meet future sharp rising requirement for transportation fuel, and syngas making from coal to promote vast use of clean energy in urban to cure pollution are also studied with application of the model.