中国实际GDP序列的非对称性度量和统计检验

Measurements and Tests on the Asymmetry in Real GDP Series in China's Economy

通过引进表示经济衰退的解释变量 ,我们检验了中国实际季度GDP序列当中存在的非对称性 ,说明这些非对称性主要是由模型的非线性结构形成的。实际GDP序列当中的非对称性表明随机扰动在经济周期的不同阶段具有不同的持续性和波动性 ,因此顺周期与反周期的经济政策具有不同的作用效果。

By inducing the measurements of recession degree,we have tested the asymmetry in quarterly real GDP data of China's economy,and showed that it is caused by the nonlinear structural model.mean while,the asymmetry in real GDP series indicates that there exist different persistence and volatility during the different phase of business cycle Therefore the procycle and countercycle polices have different effects on the economy.