投资机会成本量化的期权方法探讨

The Quantification of the Opportunity Cost Using the Way of Option

在传统的项目投资决策理论中 ,进行项目的可行性研究时 ,一个决定性的指标是净现值 (N PV) ,认为只要 N PV>0 ,那么项目是可行的 ,而 N PV的计算基础是初始的有形实际投入加上对未来收益现金流的预期。这种方法存在着不科学性 :初始投入只考虑了有形投入 ,而没有考虑由于未来收益具有不确定性而产生的机会成本。拟采用期权的方法对传统的投资方法进行修正 ,力图使投资决策做到更加科学。

In the view of the traditional theory of investment, the concept of net present value plays a crucial role. It believes that the investment project is valuable as long as NPV >0 . According to the traditional theory NPV , equals to the initial tangible assets plus the expect of the project's future cash flow. But this method is unscientific: there is just tangible assets in the initial cost, not including opportunity cost generated because of the future gains existing uncertainty. This paper tries to make the investment decision making more scientific by correcting the traditional method using option method.