中国经济受CO_2减排率影响的不确定性CGE模拟分析

MODELING THE IMPACT OF CO_2 MITIGATION RATE ON CHINA′S NATIONAL ECONOMY:A FUZZY EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OVER THE UNCERTAINTY

以 State- contingent模型为基础 ,结合中国具体情况 ,采用不确定性参数 ,对中国合理的 CO2 减排率制定问题进行了模拟分析。结果表明 ,中国完全可以完成本世纪中叶的 CO2 减排任务 ,根据中国国情可以采用减排率为 0 %的政策方案。另一方面在 CO2 减排率的制定中 ,可以进行定期调整减排量的方案。

This paper aims at presenting a modeling simulation of the green house effect on the global climate change. According to the FCCC, signed in 1994, all the conferees promise to reduce part of their GHG. As for China, it has become a key problem whether to choose to reduce its CO_2 emission amount and to what extent to reduce the effect of this emission on its economic development. As we know, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) is considered important in modeling economic policies of a country. Important as the problem of CO_2 reduction may be, there exist uncertainties as to the best options. Based on the study of many literatures, the present authors find that State-contingent model developed by Nordhaus is the preferable model in modeling the CO_2 reduction policy. Taking the model as a guide, this paper has initiated the first original model in close accordance with China's reality. Then the authors began to prepare models with Chinese correlated data, such as its production, population, CO_2 emission, etc. And finally, we have got the figures illustration and demonstration in this paper. The results show that China can take on its duty by the mid of this century, but, considering China 's goal of economic development and the economic concession of the whole world, China should take 0% as its CO_2 reduction rate, that is, keep current CO_2 emissions constant.