水资源系统不确定性决策机会约束模型法

Chance-Constrained Model for Uncertain Decision of Water Resources Systems

针对多属性不确定性决策问题 ,提出了可用于研究方案排序的机会约束模型法 .该方法既可恰当处理多属性区间值的不同随机分布假设 ,又可考虑决策者对综合评价值的期望水平 ,避免了对复杂的综合评价值随机分布的简单化处理 .对于复杂的多随机变量机会约束模型 ,使用基于随机模拟的遗传算法可以有效地获得问题的解 。

A chance constrained model used for determination of numerical orders of schemes is proposed for multiple attribute uncertain decision problems. Not only can the method deal with various stochastic distribution hypotheses for multiple attribute range values, but also take decision maker's expectation of comprehensive assessment into account. Therefore, the method can avoid simplification of treatment of stochastic distributions of complicated comprehensive assessment. For the complicated chance constrained model with multiple stochastic variables, a genetic algorithm incorporated with stochastic simulation is used to obtain reasonable solutions to problems.