经济周期、WTO与银行不良债权

Economic Cycle,WTO and Bad debts of Banks

本文以新一轮经济周期和加入WTO为背景 ,围绕国有银行巨额不良债权问题 ,对相关政策及其取向进行了剖析。特别强调了体制解放对转轨经济周期的推动作用 ,视加入WTO为新一轮周期最大的体制变量。存量巨大、流量不减的银行不良债权在“后改革开放时期” ,特别是第三个 10年的中段可能因为政策不当导致货币或金融危机的出现。滞后的金融制度建设已成了整个经济改革的主要瓶颈 ,如无“激进”意味的举措 ,将难以抵御经济金融全球化的冲击。

The article probes into the bad debt problem of the state-owned banks, the pertaining policies and their orientation in the turn of the new economic cycle and China's entry into WTO. The main conclusions include following three points: (1) the economic system reform gives impetus to the new economic cycle during the transition period. The entry into WTO is the most important institutional change. (2) Vast and continuous amount of bad debts of the banks will probably lead to monetary or financial crisis in the post-reform period, especially in the mid of the new economic cycle. (3) Sluggish construction of financial system has been hindering the economic reform. Without dramatic and radical changes, Chinese economy will be vulnerable to the shock waves brought by the financial globalization.