热轧机组轧制负荷的自适应模糊预测

Oneself accommodate fuzzy forecast of hot rolling mill rolling load

针对传统轧制负荷模型的固有缺陷，为了提高精轧机组轧制负荷预设定精度，提出一种将基于误差反馈和专家经验的闭环模糊控制引入轧制负荷预测系统中的新方法，用于修正预测输出、提高预测精度和鲁棒性的设想。离线仿真表明：采用本文所述的方法，预测精度优于传统方法。预测结果的相对误差限制在5%以内。

Aiming at intrinsic limitation of traditional models of rol ling load and in order to improve the advance assumed precision of rol ling load, a new method is put forward that introduces the idea of clo se-loop fuzzy control based on error feedback and expert experience in to prediction of rolling load force in order to amend forecasting outp ut and raise their forecasting accuracy and robust capability. Off-lin e simulation indicates that the forecasting results, whose relative er ror is within 5%, are more accurate than those forecasted by tradition al models.