货币是否影响产出

Money Causes Output?

研究经济周期的经济学家经常要探讨货币增长与产出增长的关系 ,这一探讨可以分成两种理论。其一是货币经济周期理论 ,该理论强调货币供给在影响真实经济活动中的因果作用 :货币供给的增长变化引起产出增长的变化 (货币影响产出 ) ;其二是真实经济周期理论 ,该理论对传统的货币经济周期理论形成挑战。真实经济周期模型用反向因果关系的概念来解决货币与产出的关系。认为经济中真实部门的发展影响人们的理财决定 ,从而影响货币需求的数量。只要金融系统随着货币需求的变化而做出反应 ,产出增长的变化将导致货币增长的变化 (产出影响货币 )。

Economists studying business cycle often focus on the relationship between money growth and output growth. Two very different theories explain this relationship. The first, monetary-business-cycle theory, assigns a causal role to money supply in influencing real economic activities: changes in money supply cause changes in output growth (money causes output). The second, real-business-cycle theory, challenges the traditional monetary-business-cycle theory. This model explains the relationship between money and output by appealing to the idea of reverse causation. Development in the real sectors of the economy affects people's financial decision, which, in turn influence the quantity of money demanded. So changes in output growth generate changes in money growth (output causes money), not vice versa.