新疆水资源对气候变化的响应

Response of water resources to climate change in xinjiang

由绿洲及其所在荒漠盆地平原与周边山地共同组成的新疆地域系统,是我国西北干旱区的主要构成部分。高山与盆地相间的地貌特点,形成了干旱区内独具一格的水循环系统,构成了没有水力联系的内陆河大小流域。水资源在流域水循环过程中形成和转化,以河流为纽带把山地、盆地平原、绿洲和荒漠系统联系起来。由于荒漠盆地平原系统很难产生径流,从山地进入荒漠盆地平原的河流就成为主要的水资源。它不仅是生态与环境的控制因素,同时还是社会经济发展的物质基础。20世纪80年代后期,新疆降水增加20%～30%,河川径流普遍增大,湖泊水位明显升高,湖水面积不断扩大,地下水位逐渐回升。对水资源变化、气温上升、降水显著增多诸因素进行综合分析,说明在全球气候背景下,区域气候和水文变化朝着有利于新疆社会经济发展方面演变,预测这种趋势将持续到21世纪前20年。

Consisted of the oases,deserts,basins,plains and surrounding mountains,the vast terri-torial system of Xinjiang is an important component in arid areas of Northwest China.Because the geomorphological features having high mountains are in alternation with basins,the unique water cycle systems and the interior drainage basins,big or small,without hydraulic connections are thus formed.In the water circulating process,the mountains,basins,plains,oases and deserts are connected due to the formation and conversion of the water resources through the streams.The streams from the mountains to the deserts,basins and plains are the main sources of the wa -ter resources in Xinjiang because the runoff formation does not occur in the desert,basin and plain systems.Water resources serve not only as the control factors of the ecology and environ-ment,but also as the material base for socio-economic development.Since the late1980s,precip-itation in Xinjiang has increased by20%～30%,stream runoff has universally increased,water level of the lakes has obviously raised,surface area of the lakes has continuously enlarged,and the groundwater level has raised step by step.The synthetic analyses on the main changes of wa -ter resources,slight increase in temperature,obvious increase in precipitation,etc.,show that the regional climate and hydrology are changing towards the favorable aspect to the socio-economic development in Xinjiang in the context of global climate change.It is predicted that this trend will continue untill the first20years of the21st century.