北京市人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的多目标规划模型

A Multi-Objective Goal Programming Model for Beijing's Coordination Development of Population, Resources, Environment and Economy

人口、资源、环境和经济之间的相互作用构成了一个动态开放的复杂系统 .本文以北京市为例 ,采用北京市的历史统计数据 ,开展了人口、资源、环境和经济协调发展实证研究 ,建立了人口、资源、环境和经济协调发展的非线性多目标模型 .以模型计算结果为依据 ,给出了相关的政策建议 .结果表明 ,该模型可较好地反映各子系统协调发展的制衡关系 。

Population, resources, environment and economy form a complex system we called PREE system. For this system, a multi-objective model is formulated based on nonlinear goal programming. In practice, we take social development plan of Beijing as a case study. According to the targets of the 9th and 10th Five-Year Plan, the authors put forward concrete target functions by fitting the statistic data, and then get the results of those decision-making variables and target variables with the model. In the last part of the paper, the authors analyzed these results and proposed some suggestions related to public policy. The application shows that this model could provide decision support for the plan of society development.